How will global steel demand change in 2023? According to the forecast results released by the Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute recently, the global steel demand in 2023 will present the following characteristics:
Asia. In 2022, Asian economic growth will face great challenges under the influence of the tightening of the global financial environment, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the slowdown in China’s economic growth. Looking ahead to 2023, Asia is in a favorable position for global economic development, and it is expected to enter a stage of rapid decline in inflation, and its economic growth rate will surpass other regions. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects Asian economies to grow by 4.3% in 2023. According to a comprehensive judgment, the Asian steel demand in 2023 is about 1.273 billion tons, up 0.5% year on year.
Europe. After the conflict, the global supply chain tension, energy and food prices continue to soar, in 2023 the European economy will face great challenges and uncertainty, high inflationary pressures caused by shrinking economic activity, energy shortage of industrial development problems, rising cost of living and corporate investment confidence will become the European economic development. In a comprehensive judgment, the European steel demand in 2023 is about 193 million tons, down 1.4% year on year.
South America. In 2023, dragged down by high global inflation, most countries in South America will face great pressure to revive their economies, control inflation and create jobs, and their economic growth will slow down. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the South American economy will grow by 1.6% in 2023. Among them, infrastructure, housing and renewable energy projects, ports, oil and gas projects is expected to rise, driven by Brazilian steel demand, directly leading to a rebound in steel demand in South America. Overall, the steel demand in South America reached about 42.44 million tons, up 1.9% year on year.
Africa. Africa’s economy grew faster in 2022. Under the influence of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, international oil prices have risen sharply, and some European countries have shifted their energy demand to Africa, which has effectively boosted the African economy.
The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Africa’s economy will grow by 3.7 percent year on year in 2023. With high oil prices and a large number of infrastructure projects started, African steel demand is expected to reach 41.3 million tons in 2023, up 5.1% year on year.
the Middle East. In 2023, the economic recovery in the Middle East will depend on international oil prices, quarantine measures, the scope of policies to support growth, and measures to mitigate the economic damage caused by the epidemic. At the same time, geopolitics and other factors will also bring uncertainty to the economic development of the Middle East. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the Middle East will grow by 5% in 2023. According to a comprehensive judgment, the steel demand in the Middle East in 2023 is about 51 million tons, up 2% year on year.
Oceania. The main steel consumption countries in Oceania are Australia and New Zealand. In 2022, Australian economic activity gradually recovered, and business confidence was boosted. New Zealand’s economy has recovered, thanks to a recovery in services and tourism. The International Monetary Fund forecasts that Australia and New Zealand will both grow by 1.9% in 2023. According to the comprehensive forecast, Oceania steel demand in 2023 is about 7.10 million tons, up 2.9% year on year.
From the perspective of the forecast change of steel demand in major regions of the world, in 2022, the steel consumption in Asia, Europe, the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States and South America all showed a downward trend. Among them, the CIS countries were the most directly affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the economic development of the countries in the region was severely frustrated, with the steel consumption falling by 8.8% year on year. Steel consumption in North America, Africa, the Middle East and Oceania showed an upward trend, with year-on-year growth of 0.9%, 2.9%, 2.1% and 4.5% respectively. In 2023, steel demand in CIS countries and Europe is expected to continue to decline, while steel demand in other regions will increase slightly.
From the change of steel demand pattern in various regions, in 2023, Asian steel demand in the world will remain around 71%; steel demand in Europe and North America will remain the second and third, steel demand in Europe will fall by 0.2 percentage points to 10.7%, North America steel demand will increase by 0.3 percentage points to 7.5%. In 2023, the steel demand in CIS countries will decrease to 2.8%, comparable to that in the Middle East; that in Africa and South America will increase to 2.3% and 2.4% respectively.
Overall, according to the analysis of global and regional economic development and steel demand, the global steel demand is expected to reach 1.801 billion tons in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.4%.
Post time: Jun-26-2023